![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
The Patriots played the Colts last night. With 2:08 to go in the game, leading by six points, the Patriots faced fourth-and-2 at their own 28 yard line. To the amazement of everyone, they did not punt.
Bill Belichick called a short pass to the right side, falling short when Kevin Faulk bobbled the catch, was immediately hit, and only had possession after being driven back a half-yard, just behind the first-down marker. The Colts took over and Peyton Manning drove the other way for a touchdown, winning the game by 1, completing a 17-point comeback.
There can be no doubt that not punting was the correct decision. Take a wild-ass guess at a few numbers: A = probability of converting fourth-and-two, B = probability of losing after successful conversion, C = probability of losing after failed conversion, D = probability of losing after punt. Punting is only right if A*B + (1-A)*C < D.
My guesses are about 65%, 5%, 50%, 30%. Under those assumptions the Patriots win the game after a punt 70% of the time, and win the game after going for it over 79% of the time, a huge difference. Your guesses may be different, but you'll be hard-pressed to find any reasonable set of figures that makes punting correct.
There is no other coach in the NFL who makes this decision. Here is why:
( Read more... )
Bill Belichick called a short pass to the right side, falling short when Kevin Faulk bobbled the catch, was immediately hit, and only had possession after being driven back a half-yard, just behind the first-down marker. The Colts took over and Peyton Manning drove the other way for a touchdown, winning the game by 1, completing a 17-point comeback.
There can be no doubt that not punting was the correct decision. Take a wild-ass guess at a few numbers: A = probability of converting fourth-and-two, B = probability of losing after successful conversion, C = probability of losing after failed conversion, D = probability of losing after punt. Punting is only right if A*B + (1-A)*C < D.
My guesses are about 65%, 5%, 50%, 30%. Under those assumptions the Patriots win the game after a punt 70% of the time, and win the game after going for it over 79% of the time, a huge difference. Your guesses may be different, but you'll be hard-pressed to find any reasonable set of figures that makes punting correct.
There is no other coach in the NFL who makes this decision. Here is why:
( Read more... )
